Methodology
Reading the volatility surface
An implied volatility surface is the options market's map
of risk for a single underlying: one volatility number for every strike
and expiry, drawn as a landscape rather than a single line. Its shape
encodes how the market prices uncertainty across price and time.
01 · What the axes show
Strike, tenor, volatility
Strike (x) is the option's exercise price; tenor (y) is
time to expiry in years; height & colour (z) are annualised
implied volatility: cool indigo is calm, warm amber is stressed. The
tilt across strikes is the skew / smile; the slope across
tenors is the term structure.
02 · How it's built
From quotes to a surface
For each near-the-money option we invert the bid/ask mid price
through a Black-Scholes-Merton model (QuantLib) to recover its implied
vol, assuming flat r 3% and q 1%. Those points
are fitted into a QuantLib Black-variance surface, then sampled
on a fine strike × tenor grid.
03 · What it's useful for
Pricing, risk & relative value
Price and hedge options consistently across the whole chain, spot
rich / cheap strikes and expiries, gauge how the market prices
crash risk via the put skew, and read its expectation of
near- versus long-term turbulence from the term structure.